Demand-Side Pathways Model

New release coming soon

We are preparing to launch a significantly updated version of the Building Decarbonization Alliance Demand-Side Pathways Model (BDA-DSPM, formerly known as the BDA-OSM or ‘Open-Source Model’).

 

This relaunch marks a substantial overhaul of the model’s capabilities and its user experience, offering a streamlined, web-based interface for exploring how changes in Canada’s building stock could shape energy demand, emissions, and peak loads under different prospective decarbonization policies, equipment adoption trends, and building activity scenarios (e.g., new construction and retrofit rates). Developed as part of the Transition Accelerator’s open modelling ecosystem, the BDA-DSPM will be available alongside other models that support evidence-based planning for a low-carbon future.

Key features

Key features of the new release will include:

  • Robust scenario modelling to explore how changes in the building stock affect energy demand, emissions, and seasonal peak loads
  • Support for analyzing key decarbonization strategies, including energy efficiency, electrification, and demand response
  • An intuitive web interface that guides users through the full workflow—from defining scenarios to visualizing results and comparing policy pathways
  • Open, well-documented input data and methods for transparency in support of consensus-building and dialogue across an emerging community of users
  • A transparent Data Library of model inputs calibrated to public sources, providing users with a credible off-the-shelf starting point for analysis, and designed to incorporate more granular or recent open-source data as it becomes available
  • A well-structured codebase designed to support future user-driven feature development and direct contributions from the modelling community
Example Output from Single Scenario: Projected Annual Electricity Use by End Use (2021–2050), Scenario with Strong Heat Pump Uptake
Example Output from Multi-Scenario Comparison: Projected Peak Hour Electricity Demand (2021–2050) Across Four Space Heating Transition Pathways

We are actively engaging with potential users to ensure the model supports real-world applications in policymaking contexts. If you are exploring similar questions in your own work, we welcome the opportunity to learn more about your use case and identify ways the platform could support—or evolve to meet—your needs. If you have any inquiries, or are interested in getting involved, please contact dspm@buildingdecarbonization.ca.  

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