Analysis
With 18% of Canada’s GHG emissions flowing from the building sector, and more than 77% of building emissions coming from combusting fossil fuels for space and water heating, a switch to non-emitting heating sources is needed to achieve the ambitious target of zero national greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. As noted in The Transition Accelerator’s Pathways to Net Zero report, the replacement of fossil-fuel fired furnaces and boilers with electric heating equipment (electrification) is the most compelling pathway to widespread building decarbonization.
In the residential sector, more than 6 million or 40% of homes use electric heating, and more than 850,000 of those homes use heat pumps. Although Canadians’ adoption of heat pumps is already increasing, Canadian households are not on track to electrify their space heating by 2100, let alone by 2050. In this context, this report serves as a tool to understand the current state of adoption of heat pump technologies in the residential sector, and the rates of adoption that are needed to reach Canada’s 2050 goals.
The projections in this report do not reflect the impact of the current policy environment for building decarbonization. Instead, they show the rate of progress necessary to address the climate crisis. This assessment provides policy makers and advocates with a simple but powerful depiction of the rate of adoption required to achieve our climate targets, without prescribing specific policies to increase this adoption.
About the Authors
Aurélie Vérin
Senior Policy Analyst
Before joining the BDA, Aurélie was a Senior Consultant at Econoler. She also worked for energy and services providers focusing on demand side management and on the development of commercial strategies and service offerings related to energy efficiency. Aurélie holds a Bachelor of Science in agro-environmental engineering from ISA Lille, as well as a master’s degree in urban environmental management from Wageningen University.
Mathieu Poirier
Director of Policy
Matt prides himself on translating research findings into actionable solutions to support the clean energy transition. He brings more than a decade of experience working to decarbonize the built environment via positions in—and engagements with—governments, utilities, and industry. Before joining the Building Decarbonization Alliance, Matt held consulting roles at Dunsky Energy + Climate Advisors and Deloitte, and worked in industry and non-profit organizations focusing on green building design and legal analysis. He holds degrees in mechanical engineering and psychology from the University of Waterloo, and a law degree from Dalhousie University. He also earned an MBA from Saint Mary’s University. Matt also co-authored The Case for Building Electrification in Canada, our foundational position paper.
Citations
Vérin, A., Poirier, M. (2024). Pace of Progress: Achieving the Necessary Momentum to Meet Canada’s 2050 Climate Goals in the Residential Building Sector. Building Decarbonization Alliance. Version 1.0.