Space and water heating are the largest sources of end-use energy demand in Canada’s buildings, and one of the highest leverage areas for decarbonizing the sector. But are we on track to lay the foundations for an electrified economy? 

Our 2026 State of Play shows the state of electrification across Canada in one condensed slide deck, providing a clear snapshot of heat pump adoption as it stands today. It also looks at the pace of progress for electrification: where it’s on track, where it’s too slow, and how supportive policies, clear targets, and evolving market trends continue to accelerate heat pump adoption. 

Combining our Case for Building Electrification, Pace of Progress, and Jurisdictional Scan reports into one concise, updated picture, the State of Play is an at-a-glance look at how building electrification is progressing across Canada. 

State of Play
What's Inside?
Three reports, now in one
A summary of where things stand on building electrification
Buildings dominate end-use electricity demand
1.a. Buildings account for most of Canada’s electricity demand
1.b. Space and water heating are the biggest levers to electrify buildings
1.c. Efficient electrification leads to savings for most Canadians
Residential heat pumps are gaining ground, but adoption is uneven and still off track in most provinces
2.a. Canadians are adopting heat pumps, led by the Atlantic provinces
2.b. Heat pumps can help address the rise in cooling demand
2.c. Heat pumps outsell other household cooling and heating equipment
2.d. Apartment renters are being left behind on heat pumps
2.e. Technology adoption roughly follows an S-curve
2.f. Residential heat pump adoption is still not on track in most provinces
2.g. Homes with electric resistance are a major opportunity for heat pump conversion
2.h. Heat pump adoption increases as the electricity to fuel cost ratio drops
2.i. Residential electric water heater adoption is on track in most provinces
2.j. Awareness of heat pumps is rising and owners recommend them
Commercial electrification has room to grow
3.a. Electrifying space heating in commercial buildings is largely not on track
3.b. Electrifying water heating in commercial buildings is not on track
What is happening elsewhere?
4.a. Notable progress is encouraging building electrification around the world
4.a. Notable progress is encouraging building electrification around the world
About the Building Decarbonization Alliance 

Takeaways

  • Space and water heating are the largest sources of end-use energy demand in Canada’s building sector — and the highest-leverage areas for electrification.
  • Canadians are increasingly choosing heat pumps for residential heating and cooling. Heat pump shipments currently outnumber air conditioners across Canada, and heat pumps are the primary heating source in 8% of homes.
  • Heat pumps can help address the rise in cooling demand: every new cooling purchase is a chance to install a heat pump instead of an air conditioner, one of the best opportunities to grow heat pump adoption.
  • Demand signals are building: awareness of heat pumps is rising and owners overwhelmingly recommend them.
  • Adoption is slower than needed in both residential and commercial heating and is regionally uneven. The Atlantic provinces are the only ones on track fully electrify space heating by 2050, water heating is even slower.